Tripling Renewable Energy by 2030: Challenging but doable

The host United Arab Emirates is urging nearly 200 nations at the COP28 climate summit to commit to tripling installed renewable energy capacity globally by 2030, a target deemed "ambitious but achievable" by experts.

If the UN forum solidifies this goal, it could serve as a pivotal indicator of COP28's success, particularly if paired with a commitment to reduce fossil fuel use.

In September, the G20, responsible for 80 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, endorsed the objective of tripling renewable energy capacity by the end of the decade. The focus on renewables gained prominence, redirecting attention from technologies like hydrogen and carbon capture, which, while helpful, are not considered the primary driving force for addressing the climate crisis.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), scaling up wind, solar, hydroelectric, and other renewables is the "single most important lever" to reduce carbon pollution and limit global warming under the Paris Agreement's 1.5-degree Celsius threshold.

The IEA emphasizes that achieving net-zero emissions from the energy sector by 2050 depends on tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, a move that could prevent approximately seven billion tonnes of CO2 emissions over the next seven years.

To meet this goal, there is a need to increase renewable capacity from 3,600 gigawatts (GW) at the end of 2022 to 11,000 GW in 2030, requiring the addition of 1,500 GW of new installed capacity annually.

Progress is evident, with renewable capacity growing by an average of 11 percent per year between 2015 and 2022. China, a major player, is on track to reach its 2030 target of 1,200 GW solar capacity ahead of schedule.

Challenges include obstacles faced by wind power due to rising costs and interest rates. Some nations are making strides in meeting or exceeding their 2030 targets, but others, including Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates, have room for improvement.

Barriers such as underdeveloped grids, permitting challenges, and inadequate finance hinder the realization of planned wind and solar projects. Despite being cost-effective and quick to deploy, wind and solar projects require substantial investment, particularly in emerging and developing countries.

While the energy transition necessitates redirecting investments away from fossil fuels, current subsidy trends show increased support for hydrocarbons, hindering progress toward renewable energy goals. Finance gaps and insufficient investment in regions like Africa, where half the population lacks electricity, remain significant challenges on the path to tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030.