Global Solar Module Prices Expected to Rise 9% in Q4 — What It Means for Installers and Developers
After nearly two years of record-low solar equipment prices, the global market is preparing for an upward shift. Industry analysts forecast solar module prices to increase by up to 9% in Q4 2025, marking the end of the steep price decline that began in 2023.
The price correction comes as China consolidates its polysilicon industry, enforces production cuts across the solar value chain, and removes the 13% export VAT rebate for modules and batteries — a policy shift effective from October 2025.
For the past 18 months, developers and installers worldwide have benefited from historically low module prices ranging between $0.07 and $0.09 per watt, driven by Chinese manufacturers clearing excess stock. That era is now coming to a close.
Manufacturers have already warned international buyers to expect around a 9% increase in solar module prices in the coming quarter, citing tighter supply conditions and policy changes. Utilization rates among major polysilicon and cell producers have dropped to 55–70%, further tightening the market.
Battery prices are expected to follow the same trend, rising in parallel with solar modules as China’s VAT rebate withdrawal applies to both categories.
Experts describe this adjustment as a “necessary market correction” that could bring stability after years of aggressive price competition.
“The shift away from unsustainable price wars will allow manufacturers to maintain healthy margins, reinvest in R&D, and ensure long-term supply chain resilience,” noted one analyst.
For developers, this change means revisiting procurement timelines and cost assumptions, while for manufacturers, it’s a long-awaited step toward sustainable growth.
At Gunda Power, we continue to monitor these global shifts closely to ensure our partners and resellers stay ahead of the curve — with reliable pricing, certified equipment, and consistent availability across our range of JA Solar, Solis, Dyness, and Suntree products.
