PV Module Prices Dive To Record Low in 2023
Solar module prices have reached a historic low, as reported in a recent weekly update by pv magazine, a subsidiary of OPIS, a Dow Jones company. In this analysis of solar PV module supply and pricing trends, the Chinese Module Marker (CMM), which serves as OPIS's benchmark for Mono PERC modules from China, and TOPCon module prices have both dropped by $0.005 per Wp to $0.140/Wp and $0.147/Wp, marking the lowest prices ever recorded according to OPIS data. This decline can be attributed to falling upstream prices and reduced demand in China and its key export markets.
The decline in upstream prices across the Chinese supply chain has put downward pressure on module prices. China's polysilicon prices fell by 4.19%, or 3.33 yuan/kg, reaching 76.17 yuan/kg for the week. The wafer and cell segments have seen prices decrease for the third consecutive week, with Mono G12 cells experiencing a substantial 10.45% drop to $0.0703/Wp. OPIS' weekly market survey revealed that both buyers and sellers of modules reported lower prices. P-type modules are on the verge of reaching 1 yuan/W, while n-type modules are just slightly above 0.10 yuan/W higher, as noted by a developer.
The overall sentiment in China remains pessimistic. While some domestic demand is expected from fourth-quarter installations, this period is traditionally characterized by lower demand. This is compounded by diminishing available land for projects, which is expected to dampen demand. Orders signed in the previous quarter have been canceled, and buyers are eager to renegotiate contracts at the current low prices. China's module manufacturers are grappling with inventory levels of 1-2 months, according to one seller, adding to the supply glut.
China's key export markets are also facing challenges. In the European distributed market, inventories are so substantial that there is virtually no need for further supply replenishment. Ground-mounted project approvals are slow, and a shortage of labor for project setup compounds the issue. In Latin America, Brazil's market is encountering a similar situation, with excess inventory described as "hoarding."
Looking ahead, it is anticipated that module prices will continue to decrease as the year draws to a close, as per insights gathered by OPIS during their weekly market survey. Many sources have pointed out that the era of 1 yuan/W has already arrived, with recent major procurement tenders in China seeing bids for P-type modules as low as 0.993 yuan/W. This is expected to intensify competition in the industry, and some experts suggest that industry consolidation may gain momentum.
OPIS, a subsidiary of Dow Jones, specializes in providing energy prices, news, data, and analysis across various sectors, including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG/NGL, coal, metals, and chemicals, as well as renewable fuels and environmental commodities. They acquired pricing data assets from Singapore Solar Exchange in 2022 and now publish the OPIS APAC Solar Weekly Report.
