China’s Solar Supply Chain Sees 33% Surge in Wafer & Polysilicon Prices
In its latest weekly market summary, OPIS (a Dow Jones company) highlights significant shifts in pricing across the global solar supply chain.
Polysilicon (mono, n-type): The China Mono Premium—OPIS’s benchmark for mono-grade polysilicon used in n-type ingot fabrication—rose by 2.29% over the week, reaching CNY 44.75/kg (≈ USD 6.23/kg), or about CNY 0.094 per watt.
Wafer pricing (FOB China): Prices for n-type M10 and G12 wafers climbed to USD 0.156 and USD 0.196 per piece, up 8.33% and 5.38%, respectively.
Domestic wafer trend: In China’s domestic market, N-type 182 mm wafer prices have increased for the fourth week in a row, jumping from a recent bottom near CNY 0.90 per piece to CNY 1.21 per piece.
Analysts believe the upward momentum may continue, as firmer futures in the polysilicon market tend to feed into spot pricing for wafers.
The Pressure on Wafer Manufacturers
Many wafer producers are feeling the financial squeeze. According to industry sources, manufacturers are revising their shipment prices to reflect real-time polysilicon cost fluctuations—an effort to stem losses as raw material costs climb. While gross margins may still hold in many cases, net profits remain elusive amid tight spreads between upstream input prices and wafer selling prices.
Producers face a strategic conundrum: although coordinated output cuts could stabilize the market, the presence of low-cost producers prompts some firms to ramp up capacity cautiously. For example, one manufacturer with cash costs around CNY 1.00 per M10 wafer increased utilization last week, while another lifted throughput from just 50%. Some insiders warn that if wafer prices rise too aggressively—matching or outpacing polysilicon costs—additional capacity may be brought back online, reversing recent discipline.
Export Demand: A Temporary Lift?
Export demand may be providing some near-term support for wafer prices. Downstream buyers are reportedly accelerating purchases in anticipation of U.S. Section 232 scrutiny of imported polysilicon and derivative materials, as well as anti-dumping investigations focused on solar products from Indonesia, Laos, and India. However, most market participants believe this export surge is transitory and unlikely to sustain.
Despite growth in exports to countries like India and Turkey, monthly import levels—roughly 1 GW of wafers from China for each—are considered insufficient to underpin durable price gains.
Policy Moves & Outlook
Looking ahead, the export tax rebate (currently 9%) may be scaled back or eliminated. One market insider observed that although Chinese solar goods are expected to remain competitively priced globally, any resulting export price increases are likely to be borne by overseas buyers rather than boosting domestic producer profit margins. The primary objective of such a policy adjustment would be curbing arbitrage and constraining overseas margins, not enriching local manufacturers.
